President Donald Trump’s job approval numbers have ticked up slightly from a second-term low, assisted by a shift among independent voters and positive reactions to recent foreign policy developments. Over the past month, approval among independents rose by seven points, though the group is still 27 points more likely to hold a negative view of his job performance.
The small improvement comes as Trump highlights a deal to halt fighting with Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz oil corridor. Voter perception of his foreign policy handling improved from last week, though his numbers on the issue remain underwater.
The shifting numbers come amid a tight race for control of Congress. Democrats currently hold a four-point edge on the generic ballot, leading 46% to 42%. Meanwhile, congressional Republicans are nearly tied with Democrats on the question of which party voters trust to handle national security.
The parity follows the expiration of FISA Section 702 on Friday, marking the first time the warrantless-surveillance authority has lapsed since 2008. The lapse occurred amid long-held concerns over warrantless spying and Trump’s initial push to appoint Bill Pulte as acting intelligence chief.
On Sunday night, Trump leaned into his support from sports culture by hosting UFC “Freedom 250” on the White House South Lawn to celebrate his 80th birthday. According to ongoing tracking data, the UFC audience is young, male, multicultural, brand-hungry, and notably more supportive of Trump than the average voter. While the intensity of Trump’s support fell nationwide this year, support among UFC fans stayed net-positive.
The fan base has undergone a significant political shift over the last two years. Since 2024, UFC fans flipped from leaning Democratic to a Republican plurality, with the conservative share growing from about one-third to more than two in five.
When comparing major sports audiences by ideology, the UFC crowd ranks as the second most conservative, trailing only NASCAR, and features the smallest liberal share of any major sport. The NBA anchors the left side of the ideological scale.
However, the data indicates some cross-pressure within the UFC audience. While they are culturally conservative and favorable toward Trump, ballot testing shows some of these fans still choose Democrats for Congress. The fan base is also heavily involved in sports gambling, with 40% wagering compared to 25% of all adults. A similar political trend is currently taking place among soccer fans, signaling a needle that big brands will have to thread carefully as the United States prepares to host the World Cup.
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