Bad timing is an understatement. Just as millions of Americans pack their bags and head for the airport or the highway, a powerful winter system is slamming the brakes on travel across the northern U.S., marking the start of a chaotic holiday week.
A sharp cold plunge is already tightening its grip on the Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes, bringing fierce winds along with it. Right now, over 5 million people—including those in the Minneapolis-St. Paul metro area—are under winter storm or blizzard warnings. While meteorologists note this isn’t the most extreme system on record, the whiplash is real: it marks a jarring and sudden end to the mild “sweater weather” much of the country enjoyed leading up to the holiday.
By Thanksgiving Day, travelers in the central and eastern U.S. will need heavy coats, as temperatures are forecast to plummet nearly 20 degrees below average.
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A “Recipe for Trouble”
AccuWeather expert meteorologists warn that this initial freeze is just the beginning. They are tracking a volatile pattern that includes two distinct storm systems—one hitting now, and another expected to strike immediately after the holiday.
“Many families traveling in the eastern half of the country will likely encounter delays and disruptions before the end of the weekend. A record number of travelers combined with two large storms before and then after Thanksgiving Day is a recipe for trouble,” said AccuWeather Vice President of Forecasting Operations Dan DePodwin. “The storm after Thanksgiving Day could cause even more widespread travel issues than the storm pushing through right now.”
First Wave: Whiteouts and Wind
While most of the nation will see dry weather on Thanksgiving Day itself, the surge of Canadian air is expected to trigger the season’s most widespread lake-effect snow event.
Intense snow squalls capable of producing whiteout conditions are forecast from Cleveland to Buffalo and across parts of lower Michigan. Winds gusting 40 to 50 mph will send wind chills into the single digits and could knock out power in western New York starting Wednesday night.
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“People planning to drive on Thanksgiving Day through Friday across the Great Lakes and interior Northeast should leave extra time, check for road closures, and pack bottled water, blankets, and other supplies,” DePodwin advised.
In New York City, all eyes are on the winds ahead of the Thanksgiving Day Parade. Gusts are currently expected to stay below the 30 mph threshold that grounds the giant balloons, but officials warn that if the stronger winds arrive just a few hours early, parade operations could be impacted.
Second Wave: The Weekend Return
The travel headache won’t end when the leftovers are packed away. A second storm is predicted to blast across the country starting Black Friday, potentially snarling the return trip for millions.
This system is expected to track from the Rockies on Friday into the Midwest by Saturday. It could bring the first measurable snowfall of the season to Denver and the first “plowable” snow to cities like Omaha, Des Moines, and Kansas City.
“Very poor travel conditions with slippery, snow-packed roads could occur Friday night into Saturday night stretching from Kansas and Nebraska to Illinois and Michigan,” DePodwin said.
Air travel is expected to take a hit from both systems. Major hubs in Chicago, Detroit, Minneapolis, and New York City are facing likely delays and cancellations from Wednesday through the weekend.
While the I-95 corridor in the Northeast should remain relatively quiet until late Sunday, the southern U.S. faces a wet commute. Heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected to slow travel from the Tennessee Valley to the Southeast, though a widespread severe outbreak is not currently expected.
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