KEY HIGHLIGHTS
- Florida ranks #19 with 159.8 charges per 100,000, highest per-capita rate among states with over 50,000 Arab-Iranian residents.
- Florida has 87,000 Arab-Iranian residents (equaling 0.86% of the state’s total workforce), 11th-largest, facing 139 projected FY2026 charges.
- Florida leads Southeast neighbors: Georgia, South Carolina, Louisiana, and Mississippi trail, while only Alabama ranks higher.
For Arab and Iranian-American people in Florida, the pattern is both documentable and devastating. Every time the United States escalates military conflict involving the Middle East, federal data shows a sharp, measurable spike in workplace discrimination charges. This is not an anecdote.
An analysis by Madia Law examined 25 years of EEOC charge data for Muslim and Middle Eastern national origin complaints, overlaid geopolitical conflict dates (9/11 2001, Iraq invasion 2003, ISIS crisis 2014, Iran escalation 2025–2026), derived a 1.98x average spike multiplier from the three confirmed events, and applied that multiplier to the FY2020–2023 annual average baseline of 2,466 charges to project FY2026 figures by state. State-level figures for Arab and Iranian ancestry populations are drawn from the U.S. Census ACS Table B04006 (2022 five-year estimates).
Florida Ranks #19 in the Nation for Per-Capita Discrimination Risk for Arab-Iranian People in FY2026, at 159.8 Projected Charges per 100,000
| Rank | State | Arab-Iranian Pop (2022) | Baseline Charges (FY2020-2023) | Projected FY2026 Charges | Projected Charges per 100k |
| 1 | Wyoming | 1,500 | 2 | 4 | 266.7 |
| 2 | Alaska | 2,500 | 3 | 6 | 240.0 |
| 3 | North Dakota | 1,800 | 2 | 4 | 222.2 |
| 4 | Vermont | 2,000 | 2 | 4 | 200.0 |
| 5 | South Dakota | 2,000 | 2 | 4 | 200.0 |
| 6 | Hawaii | 4,200 | 4 | 8 | 190.5 |
| 7 | West Virginia | 3,200 | 3 | 6 | 187.5 |
| 8 | Montana | 2,200 | 2 | 4 | 181.8 |
| 9 | Delaware | 4,500 | 4 | 8 | 177.8 |
| 10 | Maine | 3,500 | 3 | 6 | 171.4 |
Small-population states dominate the top 10 because their Arab-Iranian communities, while small in absolute terms, face concentrated per-capita exposure when charges are normalized against population size. Florida, ranking 19th nationally with a per-capita rate of 159.8 per 100,000, sits in the upper half of the national rankings. Its 87,000-person Arab-Iranian community is large enough to generate 139 projected charges in FY2026, tying for 10th nationally in absolute volume, while maintaining a per-capita rate that exceeds states with far larger Arab-Iranian populations, including California (158.6), New York (158.3), and Texas (158.4). Wyoming’s projected rate of 266.7 per 100,000 is 66.9% higher than Florida’s, illustrating the wide range of per-capita risk across the country.
Looking at the study, Ashwin Madia, Trial Lawyer from Madia Law, commented.
“This is not a recent phenomenon. Twenty-five years of federal data confirm a repeating, predictable cycle: when U.S. military conflict involving the Middle East escalates, workplace discrimination charges against Muslim and Middle Eastern employees follow. The FY2026 projection is credible precisely because the pattern has held across three prior conflicts. Employers and HR departments should be preparing now, not after complaints are filed.”
Florida Outpaces Four of Five Southeast Neighbors: 1.2% Higher Than Georgia, 1.7% Higher Than South Carolina and Louisiana, 2.1% Higher Than Mississippi
| State | Nat’l Rank | Arab-Iranian Pop (2022) | Baseline Charges (FY2020–2023) | Projected FY2026 Charges | Projected Charges per 100k | vs. Florida per 100k |
| Florida | 19 | 87,000 | 70 | 139 | 159.8 | — |
| Alabama | 17 | 22,000 | 18 | 36 | 163.6 | 2.4% higher |
| Georgia | 34 | 88,000 | 70 | 139 | 157.9 | 1.2% lower |
| South Carolina | 43 | 28,000 | 22 | 44 | 157.1 | 1.7% lower |
| Louisiana | 42 | 28,000 | 22 | 44 | 157.1 | 1.7% lower |
| Mississippi | 44 | 11,500 | 9 | 18 | 156.5 | 2.1% lower |
Florida’s per-capita discrimination risk exceeds four of its five Southeast regional neighbors. Georgia, ranking 34th nationally with a projected rate of 157.9 per 100,000, trails Florida by 1.2%. South Carolina and Louisiana, both at 157.1, fall 1.7% below Florida. Mississippi, at 156.5, lags by 2.1%. Only Alabama, ranking 17th nationally at 163.6 per 100,000, exceeds Florida, by 2.4%, driven by Alabama’s smaller Arab-Iranian population of 22,000. This regional pattern reflects Florida’s unique position as both a major population center and a state with significant Arab-Iranian community concentrations in South Florida, the Tampa Bay area, and the Orlando metro region.
California Leads the Nation with 1,115 Projected FY2026 Discrimination Charges, Representing 22.8% of the National Total of 4,886, Florida Ranks Tenth at 139
| State | Arab-Iranian Pop (2022) | Baseline Charges (FY2020-2023) | Projected FY2026 Charges | Projected Charges per 100k |
| California | 703,000 | 563 | 1,115 | 158.6 |
| Michigan | 237,000 | 190 | 376 | 158.6 |
| New York | 228,000 | 182 | 361 | 158.3 |
| Texas | 161,000 | 129 | 255 | 158.4 |
| New Jersey | 132,000 | 106 | 210 | 159.1 |
| Illinois | 118,000 | 94 | 186 | 157.6 |
| Massachusetts | 110,000 | 88 | 174 | 158.2 |
| Washington | 95,000 | 76 | 150 | 157.9 |
| Virginia | 95,000 | 76 | 150 | 157.9 |
| Florida | 87,000 | 70 | 139 | 159.8 |
California alone accounts for 1,115 projected charges in FY2026, representing 22.8% of the entire national projected total of 4,886. Florida, with 139 projected charges, accounts for 2.8% of the national total and ranks tenth overall, tying with Georgia in absolute volume. Despite being the third-largest state by total population and having the third-largest workforce in the nation at 10,100,000, Florida’s Arab-Iranian community of 87,000 places it 11th in that population category. The case burden will fall most heavily on South Florida’s large employers and the state’s major metro areas, where the Arab-Iranian population is most concentrated.
No State Is Exempt: Even the 10 Lowest-Risk States Project a Near-Doubling of Discrimination Charges in FY2026
| Rank | State | Arab-Iranian Pop (2022) | Baseline Charges (FY2020-2023) | Projected FY2026 Charges | Projected Charges per 100k |
| 41 | Oregon | 35,000 | 28 | 55 | 157.1 |
| 42 | Louisiana | 28,000 | 22 | 44 | 157.1 |
| 43 | South Carolina | 28,000 | 22 | 44 | 157.1 |
| 44 | Mississippi | 11,500 | 9 | 18 | 156.5 |
| 45 | Colorado | 48,000 | 38 | 75 | 156.3 |
| 46 | Tennessee | 48,000 | 38 | 75 | 156.3 |
| 47 | New Mexico | 18,000 | 14 | 28 | 155.6 |
| 48 | Wisconsin | 38,000 | 30 | 59 | 155.3 |
| 49 | Kansas | 15,500 | 12 | 24 | 154.8 |
| 50 | Idaho | 6,500 | 5 | 10 | 153.8 |
Even Idaho, the state with the lowest per capita vulnerability at rank 50, projects a 100% increase from its baseline of 5 charges to a projected 10, confirming this is a 50-state pattern with no geographic exceptions. The lowest projected per capita rate is 153.8 per 100,000 in Idaho. Separately, because the model applies a 1.98x multiplier nationwide, no state projects an increase of less than approximately 96% before rounding. Florida’s near-doubling from 70 baseline charges to 139 projected charges is consistent with this universal pattern, and its per capita rate of 159.8 per 100,000 places it above the national median, higher than 31 other states, underscoring that Florida’s 87,000-person Arab-Iranian community faces above-average per-capita exposure alongside a significant absolute case burden.
Methodology
This analysis uses five federal data sources. The EEOC Muslim and Middle Eastern Charges dataset (FY1995–FY2015) served as the primary trendline source. The EEOC National Origin Charges dataset (FY2000–FY2017) extended the trendline through FY2017. The EEOC All Charges CSV (FY1997–FY2023) extended the trendline through FY2023 to establish the FY2020–FY2023 baseline. FBI Hate Crime data provided the broader hostility context layer. U.S. Census ACS Table B04006 (2022 five-year estimates) provided the per-capita denominators. The analytical process: (1) constructed a complete EEOC trendline from FY1995 through FY2023; (2) overlaid geopolitical conflict escalation dates (9/11 September 2001, Iraq invasion March 2003, ISIS crisis summer 2014, Iran escalation 2025–2026) to isolate the charge multiplier at each event; and (3) averaged the three confirmed multipliers to derive the 1.98x projection factor. EEOC fiscal years run October 1 through September 30; all conflict-date alignments account for this lag.
Data Sources
- EEOC Muslim and Middle Eastern Charges, FY1995–FY2015: https://www.eeoc.gov/data/charges-filed-basis-religion-muslim-or-national-origin-middle-eastern-fy-1995-fy-2015
- EEOC National Origin Charges with Muslim and Middle Eastern Percentage, FY2000–FY2017: https://www.eeoc.gov/national-origin-based-charges-filed-10012000-thru-09302017-showing-percentage-filed-charging
- EEOC All Charges CSV, FY1997–FY2023: https://www.eeoc.gov/sites/default/files/2024-05/Table%20E1a.%20Charge%20Receipts%20by%20Basis%20or%20Statute%20(All%20Statutes)%20FY%201997%20-%20FY%202023_0.csv
- FBI Crime Data Explorer, Hate Crimes: https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/explorer/crime/hate-crime
- U.S. Census ACS Table B04006, People Reporting Ancestry: https://data.census.gov/table/ACSDT5Y2022.B04006
- Research Dataset: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_XurAmdDCxhn-ANphuOiHuBZ_9-ap9CWryemSCRrHO0/edit?gid=0#gid=0
- Research by: https://madialaw.com/
About Madia Law
The study was conducted by Madia Law, a Minnesota-based trial law firm focused on employment litigation, civil rights claims, and catastrophic injury cases. The firm represents high-earning professionals facing wrongful termination or workplace discrimination, as well as families impacted by police misconduct or medical malpractice. Preparing every case for trial from day one, Madia Law advocates aggressively to secure meaningful results for its clients.
