Hoover Institution Senior Fellow Victor Davis Hanson believes the Democratic Party will likely seek a centrist candidate in the 2028 election cycle. Speaking on “The Victor Davis Hanson Show,” Hanson suggested this strategic shift is due, in part, to the current political environment shaped by the influence of the former president’s base.
Co-host Sami Winc inquired about the future direction of the Democratic Party, particularly in the context of potential presidential contenders. When asked if figures like Illinois Governor JB Pritzker could align with the party’s platform, Hanson offered names such as Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear as possibilities.
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“They’re going to go — they’re looking for a Bill Clinton. They’re not looking for a Barack Obama leftist. They’ve been there, done that, and they’re looking for a Bill Clinton centrist,” Hanson stated.
His prediction comes against a backdrop of concerning polling data for the Democratic Party. A CNN/SSRS poll conducted in March indicated the party’s favorability rating had fallen to an all-time low of 29%, a significant 20-point decrease since January 2021. The same poll revealed that over 30% of respondents could not identify a Democratic leader who they felt best represented the party.
Further compounding these challenges, a recent Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll in May showed that only about one-third of Democrats expressed strong or moderate optimism about their party’s future. Additionally, a Congressional Democrats poll in April highlighted a decline in support among young voters.
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Hanson argued that the impact of the “MAGA agenda” has diminished key centrist constituencies that Democrats previously relied upon. “That’s going to be hard because the MAGA agenda cut a lot of their constituencies out from under them,” Hanson explained, noting the reduced influence of “never Trumpers” within the Republican party.
Internal friction within the Democratic Party has also surfaced recently. The Democratic National Committee recently voted to remove Vice Chair David Hogg from his position. Hogg has been vocal in his criticism of fellow Democrats he perceives as hindering the party’s progress and had announced plans to support younger candidates in the 2026 primaries.
Despite these challenges and Hanson’s predictions, potential Democratic contenders for 2028 have already been discussed, including New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, California Governor Gavin Newsom, and former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg.
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