AccuWeather expert meteorologists are issuing a critical alert for the upcoming Memorial Day Weekend, warning of a rapidly increasing risk of dangerous and potentially life-threatening flooding, particularly in the popular tourist destination of the Ozark Mountains. This comes as a broad area from the Ozarks to the Tennessee Valley braces for significant rainfall and a continued threat of severe thunderstorms.
Rounds of heavy downpours and thunderstorms are anticipated from Friday through Monday, with 4 to 8 inches of rain expected across parts of Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Kansas.
AccuWeather forecasters warn that localized areas could see as much as 12 inches of rain from Friday night through Monday night, with intense rainfall rates of 1-2 inches or more per hour possible at times across southeastern Kansas, eastern Oklahoma, and central Tennessee.
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“Rainfall since early April in much of the highlighted flood threat zone has received 150 to 200 percent of their historical average,” stated AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bill Deger. “This means that the ground is either saturated or close to being saturated and runoff will rapidly escalate given the anticipated downpour pattern.”
This ground saturation significantly increases the risk of sudden rises on small streams and surges along area rivers. AccuWeather experts caution that “a wall of water may blast through narrow valleys, which are popular destinations for campers and summer homes in the Ozark Mountains. Small babbling brooks could become raging torrents of water in a matter of a few minutes.” People are strongly urged to use extreme caution, avoid setting up camp in low-lying areas, and review evacuation plans and routes.
Recent rainfall totals highlight the vulnerability of the region, with Memphis, Tennessee, recording 20.52 inches of rain from April 1 to May 21, more than 10 inches above its historical average. Springfield, Missouri, has seen nearly 15 inches of rainfall in the same period, compared to a normal of 8.66 inches, while Fort Smith, Arkansas, was only an inch below Springfield’s total. Low-water crossings, common in this zone, are expected to be dangerous due to existing high water or the potential for sudden rises. Urban areas may also experience rapid flooding and significant ponding on poorly draining highways.
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Beyond the flood threat, severe thunderstorms are expected daily across portions of the Plains states and extending eastward. The tail end of the front that produced dozens of destructive tornadoes in the central U.S. last week pushed off the Southeast coast on Wednesday night. However, robust thunderstorms are still expected in Florida.
“As the tail end of the front creeps southward over the Florida Peninsula, combined with a sea breeze from the Atlantic, a few robust thunderstorms can occur from east-central Florida Thursday to southeastern Florida on Friday,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Dombek. “Many Florida storms tend to pack a punch, but these could be locally severe with strong wind gusts, in addition to the usual, frequent lightning strikes and flooding downpours.” These Florida storms could also produce a tornado or waterspout and may even “wander close to the Orlando theme parks.”
Further west, severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. These storms could produce hail, flooding downpours, and localized damaging wind gusts of 60-70 mph, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 85 mph.
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The risk of severe thunderstorms will continue to shift:
- Friday afternoon and night: The threat moves north across parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri, and Arkansas, bringing potential for hail, flash flooding, and damaging wind gusts of 55-65 mph (AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 75 mph).
- Saturday through late Saturday night: The risk spans from western Texas to eastern Colorado, and as far east as southern Missouri and northern Arkansas. Severe thunderstorms could produce isolated tornadoes, hail, flash flooding, and localized damaging wind gusts of 60-70 mph (AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 85 mph).
- Sunday: The severe weather threat shifts eastward, centering on the lower Mississippi Valley and extending from north-central Texas to south-central Kansas, eastward to parts of middle Tennessee and northern Alabama. Hail, flooding downpours, and localized damaging wind gusts of 60-70 mph (AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 80 mph) are possible.
- Memorial Day: The risk of severe thunderstorms will span from western Texas to the Southeast coast and northern Florida, with potential for hail, flooding downpours, and localized damaging wind gusts of 55-65 mph (AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 75 mph).
Due to the increased risk of lightning over the holiday weekend, AccuWeather is encouraging campers, hikers, and others spending time outdoors to download the AccuWeather app and turn on push notifications to receive lightning alerts, which notify users when lightning strikes within 10 miles of their location.
While storms rumble across the South, cooler air is expected to linger across much of the Northeast, Great Lakes, mid-Atlantic, and parts of the Upper Midwest over the holiday weekend. “Due to the rain and a strong storm at the jet stream part of the atmosphere, temperatures across much of the Northeast, Midwest, Tennessee Valley and Appalachians can average 5-15 degrees below average most days of the extended holiday weekend,” said AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok.
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