Following its narrow passage in the House by a single vote on Thursday, President Donald Trump’s ambitious “one big, beautiful bill” now faces a complex and uncertain path in the Senate. The massive tax and spending package, which encapsulates many of the president’s key legislative priorities, is already prompting calls for significant alterations from various factions within the Senate Republican Conference.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune finds himself in a precarious position, needing to secure at least 50 GOP votes (with Vice President J.D. Vance breaking a potential tie, assuming this bill is being considered under current Senate rules not reconciliation, or 51 if rules require it) for the legislation, commonly referred to as the “One Big, Beautiful Bill Act.”
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With a July 4th deadline looming to send the bill to President Trump’s desk, the legislative process could extend deep into the summer as competing interests are addressed.
“We’re looking at what the House did and we’ve had a lot of conversations with our members, including one yesterday with the members in the Senate Finance Committee, to examine all the potential options there and see what we think is a workable path to get to 51 [votes],” Thune informed reporters on Thursday. “We want to do things that are meaningful in terms of reforming programs, strengthening programs without affecting beneficiaries. So it’s still a very active discussion.”
Several key areas of contention have emerged:
Medicaid Under Scrutiny Potential cuts to Medicaid are a major stumbling block for several Republican senators. Sens. Josh Hawley (R-MO), Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), and Susan Collins (R-ME) have all voiced significant concerns.
Hawley, a notable populist voice, has been particularly forthright in his defense of Medicaid benefits. He stated he spoke directly with President Trump on the issue. “[Trump] told me the House will NOT cut Medicaid benefits and the Senate will NOT cut Medicaid benefits and he won’t sign any benefit cuts,” Hawley posted on X on April 3. Missouri, which approved Medicaid expansion in 2020, has 1.3 million residents enrolled in Medicaid and CHIP, with 340,000 awaiting benefits through the expansion.
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“It is wrong to cut healthcare for the working poor… My state is a medicaid expansion state, over 20% of Missourians including hundreds of thousands of children are on Medicaid,” Hawley stated on CNN on May 14. “These are working people and their children who need healthcare.”
Collins, a moderate Republican, indicated openness to “carefully drafted” work requirements for able-bodied individuals but emphasized, “I have said and made clear that I do not want to take away Medicaid benefits.” Murkowski warned that some Medicaid-related provisions in the bill are “very, very, very challenging, if not impossible, for us to implement.”
Debate Over Energy Credits The bill’s proposed gutting of Biden-era Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) green energy subsidies is another flashpoint. Sens. Thom Tillis (R-NC), John Curtis (R-UT), Jerry Moran (R-KS), and Murkowski have expressed reservations.
Curtis, former chair of the House Conservative Climate Caucus, co-authored a letter with Murkowski urging leadership to preserve IRA tax credits for low-carbon energy sources like solar, wind, and battery storage. Tillis and Moran also signed the letter. “We have a lot of work that we need to do on the timeline and scope of the production and investment tax credits,” said Tillis. Moran, while a supporter of phasing out credits, stressed the need to evaluate if the bill’s approach is “too damaging.”
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Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-ND) also raised concerns, arguing that rolling back tax credits too quickly would harm emerging technologies like geothermal or new nuclear reactors. “They definitely need more time than that,” Cramer said. Sens. John Hoeven (R-ND) and Shelly Moore Capito (R-WV) have both suggested the House bill is merely a “starting point” for negotiations on energy credits.
Fiscal Hawks Circle on Spending and Debt Ceiling Fiscal conservatives, including Sens. Ron Johnson (R-WI) and Rand Paul (R-KY), are pushing for deeper spending cuts. Johnson, who also named Sens. Mike Lee (R-UT) and Rick Scott (R-FL) as allies in this effort, advocates for returning government spending to pre-pandemic levels—a cut of nearly $6 trillion—and has labeled the current bill “completely unacceptable.”
“In the House, President Trump can threaten a primary… Can’t pressure me that way,” Johnson told reporters, signaling less susceptibility to White House influence. “I’m not going to vote for it with minor tweaks.”
Sen. Paul has specifically objected to the bill’s provision to raise the debt limit by $4 trillion over two years, a demand made by President Trump. “I’ve told them if they’ll take the debt ceiling off of it, I’ll consider voting for it,” Paul stated, calling the proposed increase “historic” and “not good for conservatives.” He indicated potential support for the tax and spending reduction package if decoupled from the debt ceiling increase, despite finding the spending cuts “imperfect, and I think wimpy.”
SALT Cap: A Non-Issue for the Senate? Unlike the intense debate in the House, the cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions appears to be a low priority for Senate Republicans. “There’s not one Republican in the United States Senate who gives a shit about SALT,” Sen. Cramer bluntly told reporters, suggesting the current generous cap might be scaled back.
Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso (R-WY) echoed this, stating, “There’s not a single senator who is impacted by SALT. That’s an area where we understand their situation [in the House], but we don’t have that same pressure or problem.” Sen. Tillis, while disliking the SALT policy, acknowledged the political necessity of keeping some form of the cap to ensure the bill’s final passage, given House dynamics.
Tight Timeline Adds Pressure The legislative calendar further complicates matters. With Congress’s Memorial Day recess beginning Monday and extending until June 2, senators will have limited time to dissect and amend the bill before the July 4 target.
Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID), Chair of the Senate Finance Committee, suggested a more realistic deadline, noting Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated action is needed by “late July, at least” due to the debt ceiling component. “I’m going to try and get this done as soon as I can,” Crapo said.
As Senate Republicans begin the arduous task of reshaping the House-passed bill, the path to 51 votes appears fraught with challenges, requiring delicate negotiations and significant compromises to bridge the divides within the party.
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