Freshly released data from the Democratic firm Catalist regarding the 2024 presidential election has sent ripples of concern through Democratic circles, with former President Barack Obama’s aide Jon Favreau describing the findings as “upsetting, although not surprising.”
The analysis pinpoints a significant drop in support for former Vice President Kamala Harris among infrequent and new voters – a typically younger and more diverse segment of the electorate – as a key factor in her loss to President Donald Trump.
The Cook Political Report, which first reported on the Catalist analysis on Monday, May 19, 2025, ran a headline that particularly struck a chord with Favreau: “The Obama Coalition Turned Into the Trump Coalition.” Speaking on his “Pod Save America” podcast on Friday, Favreau expressed his dismay.
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“We have been saying since November that we can’t draw too many decisive conclusions about what happened in the election based only on the exit polls — that we have to wait for the gold standard data, which comes from two places: Catalist and Pew,” Favreau stated. “We finally got the Catalist data and the headlines out of it were as unsurprising as they were depressing. Kamala Harris lost critical ground with young voters and people of color, especially men of color — especially young men of color.”
According to the Catalist report, Harris garnered under 50% backing from these infrequent and new voters. While she reportedly gained one percentage point with married white women compared to previous Democratic performance, this was not enough to offset losses elsewhere. Favreau highlighted a stark contrast in voter behavior: “Super voters in this report — which are people who voted in the last four elections — she did one point better [than former President Joe] Biden among the super voters. But she lost a lot of ground among the irregular voters, people who have voted in just a few of the last four elections.”
NewsNation political contributor Chris Cillizza echoed these concerns on Wednesday, May 21, 2025, noting his surprise at Trump’s significant inroads with nonwhite voters, particularly younger demographics. “Latino men moved four times more toward Donald Trump in 2024 than white men without a college degree, which is pretty striking,” Cillizza said. “So again, Latino men 12 points more Republican in 2024 than 2020. That is striking. Men overall six points.”
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The shift among young voters, historically a Democratic stronghold, was particularly pronounced. “In 2024, 18 to 29 year olds voted 6% overall — all 18 to 29 year olds — voted 6% more Republican than they had in 2020,” Cillizza explained. “But if you look at young people of color, it’s even more striking.”
He elaborated on specific demographic shifts within this younger cohort: “Latino 18 to 29 year olds, again, 12 points more Republican than they had been four years ago. Asian-Americans and Pacific Islanders nine more points Republican than they had been four years ago. Urban 18 to 29 year olds, those living in cities, 9% more Republican than they had been four years ago.”
The Catalist data also indicated that Trump performed 1% better with women overall in 2024 against Harris than he did against Biden in 2020. He saw a 7% improvement with Hispanic women and a 4% gain with Asian-American and Pacific Islander women. His support among Black women and white women reportedly saw no significant change.
This comprehensive data from Catalist provides a clearer, albeit sobering, picture for Democrats as they analyze the 2024 election outcome and strategize for the future, revealing significant shifts within key demographic groups that were once considered reliable pillars of support.
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