The Carolinas are experiencing a deluge of tropical downpours this week, bringing much-needed rain to some drought-stricken areas but also raising concerns about urban flash flooding.
Meanwhile, AccuWeather meteorologists are closely monitoring a developing area of stormy weather in the western Caribbean, which holds the potential to evolve into a tropical system before mid-June, with at least one system expected to directly impact the United States.
A disorganized mass of showers and thunderstorms, currently stretching from the Bahamas to South Florida and Cuba, is slowly drifting north-northeastward. This system is forecast to drench Florida, southern Georgia, and coastal areas of the Carolinas through Thursday. Cities such as Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Charleston, and Wilmington should brace for potential urban flooding, as several inches of rain could fall in a matter of hours.
“These are the areas that we would typically look for tropical development during the month of June, so it’s not uncommon to see that,” stated AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva.
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Beyond the immediate rain threat, residents along the coast from Georgia to southeastern Virginia are advised to be aware of building seas, local onshore winds, and the associated risks of dangerous rip currents, coastal flooding, and beach erosion. While the current system bringing rain to the Carolinas is primarily land-based and not expected to develop tropical characteristics, the focus now shifts to the western Caribbean.
Caribbean under Scrutiny for Tropical Development
During the second week of June, a more significant tropical threat could emerge in the western and central Caribbean. Meteorologists are closely watching for the potential formation of a slow-spinning, massive low-pressure area known as a gyre. This gyre can then spawn smaller, more intense areas of low pressure that could strengthen into tropical storms and even hurricanes.
“What’s going to happen is that the Central American gyre is finally going to develop in the next week or so,” DaSilva explained, noting that a convergence of easterly and westerly trade winds contributes to its formation. The warm Caribbean waters are highly conducive to fostering and sustaining tropical development.
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AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok indicated that the window for possible tropical development in the central and western Caribbean is roughly June 10-14, or possibly a bit later. If a tropical depression or storm forms early next week, it might track into the Gulf of Mexico and potentially move towards Louisiana or Florida. However, if development is delayed until later next week or closer to mid-month, steering currents would more likely guide the system towards southern Mexico or Central America, which currently appears to be the more probable outcome.
AccuWeather meteorologists are forecasting an active hurricane season overall, with an expectation of between three to six direct impacts on the U.S., particularly in the early and latter parts of the season with a potential lull in the middle. Residents across the southeastern U.S. and Caribbean are urged to stay informed and prepared as the hurricane season progresses.
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