Mother’s Day weekend is shaping up to be a weather rollercoaster for millions across the United States, with AccuWeather meteorologists forecasting a stark contrast of conditions. While the northern Plains and Upper Midwest brace for an unseasonably hot spell, the Southeast and Tennessee Valley face the risk of severe thunderstorms and potential flash flooding. Coastal areas from northern Florida to Virginia Beach could also experience hazardous beach conditions.
“Storms and heat could impact outdoor plans for Mother’s Day for millions of families this weekend. It’s going to be downright hot in the Upper Midwest,” warned AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno. “We’re forecasting a soggy and stormy Mother’s Day weekend across much of the Southeast. Downpours and thunderstorms could spoil cookouts and picnics.”
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Damaging Thunderstorms Loom Over the Southeast
Potent thunderstorms are expected to rumble across the southern and eastern U.S. throughout Mother’s Day weekend and into the start of the week. While a widespread severe weather outbreak is not anticipated, localized damaging wind gusts reaching 50-60 mph, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 70 mph, are possible. Areas from southeastern Virginia down to the Florida Panhandle are particularly vulnerable this Friday afternoon and evening.
The severe thunderstorm threat will shift south on Mother’s Day, bringing the risk of isolated tornadoes, hail, and flooding downpours to parts of Florida, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina from Sunday into Sunday night. This risk will expand on Monday across Florida, Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina, and Tennessee, with the potential for isolated tornadoes, hail, and localized damaging wind gusts of 60-70 mph, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 85 mph.
AccuWeather urges residents in these areas to remain vigilant, monitor weather updates, and download the AccuWeather app with lightning alerts enabled to stay safe during outdoor activities. Notably, two lightning-related fatalities have already been reported this year, both involving individuals fishing in boats.
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Flooding Concerns and Dangerous Beach Conditions Emerge
Following earlier rainfall in the Northeast, a new storm system will bring 1-2 inches of rain through early Saturday, with localized totals potentially reaching 4-5 inches from eastern Pennsylvania to central New England, raising concerns for further flooding. However, drier and sunnier conditions are expected for much of the Northeast by Saturday and Sunday.
Meanwhile, a slow-moving storm system will drench the southeastern U.S. with prolonged periods of rain and thunderstorms through at least Tuesday. While this rainfall will provide much-needed relief from drought conditions impacting crops like peanuts, tobacco, and vegetables, the extended duration increases the risk of localized flooding. A widespread 1-4 inches of rainfall is expected, with some areas potentially receiving 6-10 inches due to repeated downpours, causing rapid rises in streams and rivers. The greatest flood risk spans from the Florida Panhandle to central Georgia and Alabama, with concerns extending into far western North Carolina by Monday.
The same storm system will generate onshore winds along the Atlantic coast, pushing water towards the shore and potentially causing coastal flooding, especially around high tide. “Rough conditions are expected at many Atlantic beaches from northern Florida all the way to the Carolinas and Virginia Beach,” cautioned Rayno. Families planning beach outings should be aware of the risk of rough surf and strong rip currents through Tuesday.
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Summerlike Heatwave Grips the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest
In stark contrast to the wet and stormy conditions in the East, a summerlike heatwave is set to bake the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Temperatures are forecast to surge 15 to 30 degrees above the historical average for this time of year, potentially challenging or breaking records that are a century old.
“This first heat wave of the year will send temperatures surging 15 to 30 degrees higher than what we typically see this time of year. We expect some records dating back 100 years or more to be challenged or even shattered on Mother’s Day,” Rayno emphasized.
The combination of heat, wind, and dry conditions will also elevate the risk of wildfires across the region. AccuWeather advises individuals seeking relief from the heat to be aware of the dangers of cold-water shock in lakes and rivers, which remain dangerously cold despite the warm air.
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