A new poll released by the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) indicates that House Republicans are well-positioned to not only retain their majority but potentially expand it in the 2026 midterm elections.
The internal survey, conducted across 46 key battleground districts, paints a picture of a political landscape significantly more favorable for Republicans than it was at a similar point in the 2017 midterm cycle under the previous Republican presidency.
The NRCC memorandum, dated April 29th, 2025, highlights several key findings. Unlike 2017, where Democrats held a six-point advantage on the generic ballot at this stage, the new poll shows a much tighter race, with Democrats holding a slim one-point lead (D+1).
This figure remains unchanged since the conclusion of the 2024 elections, where Republicans successfully defended their majority and flipped five Democrat-held seats. Notably, in the 13 districts won by the candidate who previously held the presidency but are currently held by Democrats, the generic ballot favors Republicans by two points (R+2).
The poll also reveals a significant shift in party image. According to the NRCC, the Democrat Party’s favorability has declined sharply, with only 25% of voters holding a favorable view compared to 72% with an unfavorable view. This nearly 50-point underwater rating suggests a widespread rejection of the Democrats’ agenda, according to the committee.
Furthermore, the survey indicates a closing of the gap on the question of which party “cares about people like me.” Republicans and Democrats are now tied at 47% on this metric, a substantial 13-point improvement for the GOP since 2017, when Democrats held a 13-point lead. In the 13 previously mentioned districts won by the former president, Republicans now hold an eight-point advantage on this crucial question.
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On key policy issues, the NRCC poll suggests Republican strength. The current president holds a commanding 56%-43% advantage on the issue of immigration, which the NRCC interprets as broad support for Republican-led border security measures. Additionally, a majority of voters (53%) believe government spending is wasteful and inefficient, aligning with the Republican push for fiscal responsibility. This sentiment is even stronger in the 13 targeted Democrat-held districts, where agreement rises to a 13-point margin.
The poll also indicates economic confidence among voters, with 55% rating their personal finances as “excellent” or “good,” which the NRCC attributes to the current Republican economic leadership.
In its concluding remarks, the NRCC asserts that the battleground environment provides a clear path to victory for House Republicans in the upcoming midterms. The committee emphasizes its strong fundraising numbers, a favorable political map, and what it describes as a rejection of “Democrats’ radical policies.”
The survey was conducted between April 13th and 18th, 2025, among 1,000 likely voters using a combination of live telephone interviews and an online voter-file matched panel. The margin of error for the full sample is ±3.1%. The 46 congressional districts included in the survey span across 19 states.
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