A new poll suggests that Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton holds a commanding lead over incumbent Senator John Cornyn among Republican primary voters, as the 2026 Senate race begins to take shape. The survey, conducted by GOP pollster Robert Blizzard for the Educational Freedom Institute, indicates Paxton is ahead of Cornyn by more than 20 percentage points statewide.
The poll, shared in a memo with Punchbowl News, shows Paxton leading Cornyn 50% to 28% in a head-to-head matchup among Republican primary voters. This substantial margin extends across every media market in Texas.
The survey further reveals Paxton’s strong performance among key Republican demographics:
- Conservative voters: Paxton leads Cornyn 66% to 22%.
- High propensity primary voters: Paxton leads Cornyn 57% to 27%.
- MAGA voters: Paxton leads Cornyn 58% to 23%.
- Seniors: Paxton leads Cornyn 47% to 35%.
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A significant majority of Republican voters, 54%, expressed a desire for a “new Republican to be elected U.S. Senator,” while only 27% felt the incumbent had “done a good enough job to deserve re-election.”
Voter favorability also strongly favored Paxton in the poll. A robust 65% of respondents viewed Paxton favorably, with only 22% holding an unfavorable opinion. In contrast, Senator Cornyn, who has served in the Senate since 2002, had a 48% favorable rating and a 37% unfavorable rating.
The poll results come amidst speculation that a third major Republican candidate, U.S. Representative Wesley Hunt, might enter the Senate primary contest. While Cornyn and Paxton are currently the only major announced candidates, the prospect of Hunt’s entry adds another layer of complexity to the race.
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An anonymous Texas GOP strategist expressed concerns about both leading candidates to NOTUS, stating, “One can’t win the primary, and the other one puts us at great jeopardy of losing the seat in 2026, and neither of those are good outcomes for the party, not just in Texas, but from a national perspective.” The strategist characterized Cornyn and Paxton as “two 65-year-old-plus dudes swinging at each other” and both “pretty dated, somewhat stale candidates.”
Recent exchanges between Cornyn and Paxton have highlighted their differing stances. Cornyn alluded to Paxton’s past corruption allegations in a New York Times interview, to which Paxton responded by criticizing Cornyn’s 2022 vote for a gun control bill.
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The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), which is backing Cornyn, told NOTUS that Rep. Hunt “already has a role to play advancing the President’s agenda and helping protect his Majority in the House.” Conversely, a strategist close to Paxton indicated that Hunt’s entry would be “great.”
The poll suggests that Hunt, a 43-year-old congressman in his second term, remains largely unknown to Texas GOP primary voters, with 34% holding a favorable view and only 3% an unfavorable view. The vast majority of respondents rated him as neither favorable nor unfavorable.
The poll surveyed 600 Republican primary voters on May 27-28, utilizing a mixed-mode methodology that included live callers, text-to-web, and cell phones.
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