As the focus begins to shift towards the 2028 presidential election cycle, a political analyst has cast doubt on the perceived strength of several prominent Democratic figures, suggesting that their current profiles may not guarantee future electoral success.
During an appearance on Mark Halperin’s “2WAY TONIGHT,” Jonathan Allen, co-author of “Fight: Inside the Wildest Battle for the White House,” warned against overestimating the prospects of individuals like California Governor Gavin Newsom, former Vice President Kamala Harris, and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.
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Allen drew a parallel to the 2024 cycle, citing the case of Ron DeSantis, who was widely considered a formidable candidate but ultimately faltered on the campaign trail despite a strong resume and significant fundraising. “The Democratic zoo is full of paper tigers,” Allen stated, suggesting that some seemingly strong candidates may lack the broad appeal needed for a national victory.
Regarding Governor Newsom, Allen suggested that the California leader appears to be exercising caution and has not yet committed to a presidential bid. Allen believes Newsom is “circumspect enough to think about the possibility that his next best move might not be running in a 20-candidate field for the Democratic nomination for president to maybe win a nomination to maybe win the presidency.”
While former Vice President Kamala Harris benefits from significant name recognition and a substantial fundraising advantage, Allen noted that questions about her electability persist. He indicated that Harris is “definitely thinking about” a run, leveraging her existing advantages.
Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, according to Allen, is one of the few potential candidates with recent national exposure due to his cabinet role. Allen mentioned Buttigieg’s upcoming visit to Iowa, highlighting his experience on the national stage as a potential asset in navigating political challenges. However, Allen cautioned that experience alone is not a guarantee of success.
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Recent reports suggest that potential future plans for these figures may be shifting. Buttigieg is reportedly weighing a presidential bid while ruling out runs for governor or senator in Michigan.
Meanwhile, allies of Kamala Harris have indicated to The New York Times that she appears more inclined towards a 2026 gubernatorial campaign in California than another presidential run. Governor Newsom, however, has seemingly been increasing his national profile by addressing national issues and offering critiques on matters such as former President Joe Biden’s pardon of his son and the fairness of biological males competing in women’s sports.
Allen’s analysis serves as an early cautionary note that the path to the 2028 Democratic nomination and the presidency remains uncertain, and perceived frontrunners may face significant hurdles in translating their current standing into electoral victory.
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