AccuWeather meteorologists are warning that approximately 180 million people are at risk of severe weather impacts across the United States through Monday, as a complex storm system develops in the central U.S. and moves towards the East Coast.
Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno emphasized the potential for a significant severe weather outbreak.
“All of the atmospheric ingredients are coming together for a severe weather outbreak on Sunday,” Rayno said. “We could see one to two dozen tornadoes reported by the end of this weekend.”
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The severe weather threat begins with rounds of thunderstorms in the central Plains, stretching from southeastern Texas to Louisiana, through Friday night. These storms carry a risk of flash flooding, hail, isolated tornadoes, and localized damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph.
Heavy rainfall earlier in the week has already caused flash flooding in South Texas, with some areas reporting over 19 inches of rain. AccuWeather meteorologists anticipate that some communities in the region may see over 21 inches of rainfall before the storms clear. While this rainfall has caused dangerous flooding in some areas, it is also expected to provide relief to areas facing severe, extreme, and exceptional drought conditions.
On Saturday, the threat of severe weather expands from central Texas to Iowa, with a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms across western Kansas, eastern Missouri, and northwestern Arkansas. This area is also at risk for isolated tornadoes, hail, and damaging wind gusts up to 80 mph.
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“Exceptionally warm air that we typically see in late April or even mid-May will help fuel the risk of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes in the central U.S. this weekend,” Rayno said. “Damaging wind gusts and hail will be the main impacts on Saturday, but these storms will also be capable of spinning up a few tornadoes.”
The threat intensifies on Sunday across a larger portion of the central U.S., bringing a risk of tornadoes, flooding downpours, hail, and localized damaging wind gusts up to 85 mph. A moderate risk of severe thunderstorms exists across parts of Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, and Ohio through Sunday night.
“Some of the severe thunderstorms will be capable of producing stronger, long-track tornadoes on Sunday,” Rayno warned.
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The potential for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes this weekend could impact communities that were previously affected by the mid-March severe weather outbreak, which saw over 100 tornadoes confirmed and claimed at least 40 lives.
By Monday, the threat of severe thunderstorms shifts eastward, stretching from Louisiana to upstate New York. While the tornado risk is currently low, a few brief tornadoes are still possible. The primary threats for Monday include flooding downpours, hail, and localized damaging wind gusts up to 80 mph.
The stormy pattern is expected to continue into early April, with a potential return of severe weather from Texas to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Wednesday.
This period also carries the risk of more flooding rain in southern parts of the region due to slow-moving storms. These storms may produce isolated tornadoes, hail, and flooding downpours.
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