Syria is facing a potential collapse within weeks, warned Secretary of State Marco Rubio to lawmakers on Tuesday, even as the U.S. recently moved to ease longstanding sanctions on the beleaguered Middle Eastern nation.
The grim assessment comes despite the U.S. aiming to avert further civil war in the country by relaxing economic restrictions earlier in May.
Rubio informed the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations that the current Syrian government, led by interim leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, is teetering on the brink.
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This precarious situation, he indicated, was a key factor in the U.S. decision to ease sanctions. Syria’s provisional government emerged following the successful insurgency of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Salafist jihadist terror group that swiftly ousted former President Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024.
“Where Syria is unstable, the region becomes unstable,” Rubio stated during the hearing, underscoring the broader implications of a Syrian collapse. “It is our assessment that, frankly, the transitional authority, given the challenges they were facing, are maybe weeks, not many months away from potential collapse and a full-scale civil war of epic proportions.”
Rubio emphasized that sanctions relief alone would not suffice, stressing the need for a more “comprehensive” approach from Congress to ensure long-term stability in the region. The Syrian civil war has claimed a devastating toll, with up to 620,000 people dead as of December 2024, according to The New York Times.
The interim leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, is a former al-Qaeda militant who was detained by the U.S. military during the Iraq War. While he reportedly split from al-Qaeda in 2017 due to ideological differences, HTS is understood to retain much of its progenitor’s philosophy on Islam and the role of jihad.
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Rubio acknowledged the problematic nature of the current Syrian government but cautioned against refusing to engage with them, suggesting it could lead to even more severe consequences.
“The bad news is that the transitional authority figures, they didn’t pass their background check with the FBI,” Rubio remarked. “If we engage them, it may work out, it may not work out. If we do not engage them, it was guaranteed to not work out.”
Al-Sharaa has publicly attempted to distance himself from his jihadist past, yet skepticism persists regarding his future governance, particularly concerning minority communities such as the Alawites. This minority group’s historical loyalty to Assad, an Alawite who reportedly protected them, has led to documented mass killings at the hands of militants in March.
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