Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is facing an increasingly turbulent political landscape, with recent polling data and expert analysis suggesting a potential primary challenge from within his party.
Speculation has been fueled by comments from Hoover Institution Senior Fellow Victor Davis Hanson, who predicted on his show that New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) could unseat the long-serving senator.
Hanson’s prediction, made on Thursday, comes amidst growing discontent among New York Democrats with Schumer’s performance.
“He’s really deteriorated,” Hanson remarked, citing instances such as Schumer’s 2020 warning to Supreme Court justices and his alleged encouragement of progressive operatives to disrupt Republican town halls. Hanson further characterized Schumer as being in “an existential crisis.”
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“AOC is going to vote him out, and he knows that. So now he’s sort of, as I said, he’s like Tiresias and Cadmus in Euripides’ The Bacchae,” said Hanson. “He’s an old man that puts on a costume and tries to dance around like he’s young and tries to out AOC, and he can’t,” Hanson added. “So he tries to blame Trump for everything. There are so many clips of him prior to 2016 praising Trump to the skies as a businessman and a friend. He has no identity, and he’s caught now.”
Adding to the pressure, Schumer recently drew criticism for suggesting that a May 17 crash of a Mexican Navy ship into the Brooklyn Bridge could be linked to cuts at the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) under the Trump administration.
This stance, along with Schumer’s decision in March to advance a GOP-backed stopgap government funding bill, has led to significant backlash from within the Democratic Party.
Early polls in April already indicated considerable support for Ocasio-Cortez in a hypothetical challenge to Schumer. CNN Chief Data Analyst Harry Enten echoed these concerns, warning Schumer on Thursday that he should be “panicking” about his political future.
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Enten highlighted a dramatic drop in Schumer’s favorability among New York Democrats, plummeting from 73% in December 2024 to just 52% in April. This, Enten noted, is “the lowest I could ever find in Siena College on how Democrats in Chuck Schumer’s home state view him.”
In contrast, Enten pointed out that AOC’s favorable rating among Democrats in New York remains “considerably higher, in the 60s.”
An April poll by the left-leaning data firm Data for Progress found that 55% of Democratic likely voters either backed or leaned towards backing AOC in a hypothetical 2028 New York Senate primary, compared to only 36% for Schumer.
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While a significant portion of New York Democrats still wish for Schumer to maintain his role as Senate leader, Marist University polling from April revealed that only 50% believe he should stay, with 48% saying no. “This screams — sirens should be going off. Primary challenge. Primary challenge. Primary challenge,” Enten asserted.
Despite these warning signs, Schumer remains outwardly confident, telling Semafor in April that Senate Democrats will regain the majority in 2026. He cited his belief that President Donald Trump and his agenda will continue to lose support.
“The electorate will desert the Republican candidates who embraced Trump in an overwhelming way,” Schumer predicted while speaking at the Semafor World Economy Summit in Washington, DC. “Trump is alienating people left and right.”
However, this optimism comes as four Senate Democrats have announced their retirement, and public approval of congressional Democrats is nearing all-time lows.
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