Invest 94E, a system currently generating thunderstorms over and offshore of Central America in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, is highly likely to strengthen into Tropical Storm Erick within the next 24 to 48 hours, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Regardless of its full development, forecasters are warning of significant heavy rainfall for Central America and southeastern Mexico throughout the week.
The NHC, which uses the “invest” designation to identify areas with potential for tropical depression or storm formation, is closely monitoring 94E.
Should it reach tropical storm status and become Erick, it would mark the fifth named storm of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, a pace that is running approximately a month ahead of schedule.
READ: Sweltering Conditions Expected As Central US Braces For Dangerous Heat Wave
Expected to form near the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico, Invest 94E is predicted to bring 3-5 inches of rain to these regions, with isolated pockets potentially receiving up to 8 inches. While the system benefits from warm ocean waters, its proximity to land could limit its rapid intensification.
The potential impacts of future Tropical Storm Erick may not be confined to Central America and Mexico. While a Mexican landfall is the most likely scenario, some computer forecast models suggest that the deep tropical moisture associated with the system could drift northward, potentially reaching parts of extreme South Texas later in the week.
READ: NOAA And CSU Forecast Above-Normal 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season, Urge Preparedness
This developing situation follows on the heels of Tropical Storm Dalila, which brought flooding and mudslides to the Mexican coast before dissipating over cooler waters on Sunday night. Tropical systems require surface water temperatures of at least 80 degrees Fahrenheit to sustain themselves.
Residents in Central America, southeastern Mexico, and potentially South Texas are advised to monitor updates from their local weather authorities as Invest 94E progresses towards becoming Tropical Storm Erick. Heavy rainfall could lead to widespread flooding and mudslides in affected areas.
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