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Election Forecaster Says Majority Of House Seats Now Lean Republican

A majority of seats in the House of Representatives now lean Republican, according to a new election forecast from Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia.
by Laurel Duggan

A majority of seats in the House of Representatives now lean Republican, according to a new election forecast from Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia.

Competitive races are breaking heavily in favor of Republicans, and analysts moved four House races in New York, Oregon, California and New Mexico from “toss up” to “leans Republican” from last week’s predictions.

The GOP is now slated to win 218 House seats by Sabato’s forecast, taking control of the chamber.

The analysis comes amid a series of polls predicting massive wins for Republicans as the economic situation worsens and voters focus heavily on inflation and the economy — issues in which the GOP outperforms Democrats in polls. Republicans can expect to see gains in the House in the high teens or low 20s, according to Sabato.

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Democrats are struggling in heavily blue states like Oregon, which has several competitive congressional seats and could see a Republican governor for the first time since the Reagan administration.

Several House seats in New York were moved from “toss up” to “leans Republican” in districts that swung strongly for President Joe Biden in 2020 but where Democratic New York Gov. Kathy Hochul isn’t slated to win.

Inflation is at a 40-year high and is consistently ranked as a top priority for voters.

Sabato predictions were moved from “toss up” to “leans Republican” in the CA-27 race between California Republican Rep. Mike Garcia and Democratic candidate Christy Smith, the NM-2 race between Republican Rep. Yvette Herrell and Democratic candidate Gabriel Vasquez, the NY-22 race between Democratic candidate Francis Conole and Republican candidate Brandon Williams and in the OR-5 race between Democratic candidate Jamie McLeod-Skinner and Republican candidate Lori Chavez-DeRemer.

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