Evidence is mounting that Russia is significantly increasing its missile stockpiles and drone production, alongside sophisticated adaptations to its aerial weaponry, signaling a clear commitment to achieving its war aims in Ukraine through prolonged military engagement. Ukrainian intelligence and recent reports indicate Moscow is not only preparing for a lengthy conflict in Ukraine but also potentially for a future confrontation with NATO.
According to a May 25th report by The Economist, Ukrainian government sources estimate the Kremlin currently possesses a stockpile of 500 ballistic missiles.
The same report highlights a substantial surge in Russia’s production of Shahed drones, with an estimated current daily output of approximately 100 units – a four to fivefold increase compared to late 2024. Ukrainian military intelligence further revealed to The Economist that Russia harbors ambitions to escalate drone production to 500 units per day at an unspecified future date.
Ukrainian drone engineers reported that Russia is actively innovating and adapting its Shahed drones to bypass Ukrainian air defenses.
These adaptations include the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) and the utilization of Ukrainian internet and mobile networks for navigation, a tactic designed to counteract Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) interference.
Further compounding the challenge for Ukrainian forces, Russian drones are now reportedly flying at higher altitudes.
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A Ukrainian officer informed the outlet that drones are operating at 2,000 to 2,500 meters, placing them beyond the reach of small-caliber guns and shoulder-fired missiles employed by Ukrainian mobile air defense crews.
Lieutenant Andriy Kovalenko, Head of the Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation, stated on May 25th that Russian forces recently achieved a new record Shahed flight altitude of 4,900 meters.
Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Colonel Yurii Ihnat corroborated these concerns on May 26th, stating that Russia is boosting its production of both Shahed and decoy drones and that these drones are indeed flying at higher altitudes.
Colonel Ihnat also noted on May 25th that Russian forces have resumed the use of Kh-22 cruise missiles after a period of reduced deployment in their strike packages. Analysts suggest that these increasingly large Russian strike packages are consistent with reports of significantly enhanced domestic production and storage capabilities for drones and missiles.
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Ukrainian intelligence echoes this assessment. Oleh Ivashchenko, Head of Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SZRU), stated in an interview with the Ukrainian outlet Ukrinform, published on May 26, that Russia’s strategic objective of gaining full control over Ukraine remains unchanged. He elaborated that the entire Ukrainian intelligence community concurs that Russia aims to seize all of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts.
Beyond Ukraine, Ivashchenko outlined Russia’s long-term ambition to establish influence over all post-Soviet states.
He estimated that Russia would require two to four years following the cessation of hostilities in Ukraine to restore its military’s combat capabilities, a timeline that the continuation and effectiveness of Western sanctions would significantly impact.
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