In the early primary state of South Carolina, former President Donald Trump maintains majority support among likely Republican primary voters for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination.
According to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS, Trump leads with 53% of the vote, followed by Nikki Haley, the state’s former governor, at 22%.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis garners 11% of the support, while South Carolina Senator Tim Scott trails at 6%.
Trump’s Dominance in South Carolina
In the race for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination, Trump’s support in South Carolina remains strong but slightly lower than his national and Nevada leads.
While Haley and DeSantis present viable challenges, Trump’s base of support in South Carolina is more solid, with 82% of his current backers affirming their unwavering support.
In comparison, only 42% of Haley’s supporters and 38% of DeSantis’ backers are certain they won’t change their minds.
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Demographic and Ideological Divides
Trump’s appeal in South Carolina transcends demographics and ideology, with robust support among likely voters without a college degree (66%), Republicans (59%), and younger voters under 45 (63%). Additionally, self-described “very conservative” voters overwhelmingly back Trump (66%), as do those in lower-income households (69%).
However, Trump’s support among moderates and liberals (41%), higher-earning households (44%), and those aged 45 and older (49%) is somewhat diminished, although he still maintains a significant lead over his rivals in each group.
White Evangelical Christian Voters
White evangelical Christian voters, a significant constituency in South Carolina’s GOP primary, largely back Trump (55%), with Haley (18%) and DeSantis (16%) trailing behind.
Trump’s appeal to this group reflects his strong support among conservatives and his ability to connect with voters who prioritize religious values.
Potential Electorate and Candidate Support
With less than four months remaining until the primary, likely South Carolina GOP primary voters display a broad range of candidate support.
While 80% currently support or are open to supporting Trump, sizable majorities also express support or consideration for Haley (72%), Scott (72%), and DeSantis (68%).
On the other hand, entrepreneurs Vivek Ramaswamy (60%) and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (71%) face significant opposition.
Former Vice President Mike Pence, who withdrew from the race after the poll, had also been ruled out by a majority (62%) of likely primary voters.
Perception of Trump’s Alleged Criminal Charges
Regarding the ongoing criminal case stemming from Trump’s alleged attempt to overturn his 2020 electoral defeat, a significant majority (67%) of likely South Carolina primary voters do not consider the charges relevant to Trump’s fitness for the presidency.
While 34% of those backing candidates other than Trump have some doubts about his fitness due to the charges, only about one-third of them view the charges as disqualifying.
Desired Attributes in the GOP Presidential Nominee
When asked about the essential attributes in the GOP presidential nominee, likely South Carolina primary voters prioritize candidates who care about people like them (75%), are willing to fight for conservative values even when unpopular (66%), and represent the future of the party (62%).
The ability to win support outside of the GOP is deemed essential by 49% of voters. Notably, Trump’s current supporters emphasize the importance of a candidate who will champion conservative causes (47%), while those backing other candidates prioritize this attribute less (32%).
Top Issues for South Carolina GOP Primary Voters
The top issue for the majority (53%) of likely South Carolina GOP primary voters is the economy, followed by immigration (21%), voting rights and election integrity (8%), abortion (5%), foreign policy (5%), and energy policy (2%).
Trump supporters are more likely than other GOP primary voters to prioritize immigration as their top issue, reflecting the president’s emphasis on border security and immigration policies.
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Joe Biden’s Popularity in South Carolina
In South Carolina, the sitting Democratic president, Joe Biden, faces broad unpopularity. While he receives positive marks from 63% of Black registered voters and 78% of Democratic registered voters, his overall approval rating stands at just 33%.
Most demographic groups in the state view Biden unfavorably, indicating a challenging landscape for Democrats in the upcoming presidential race.
Methodology and Margin of Error
The CNN South Carolina poll was conducted online and by telephone by SSRS from October 18-25, encompassing a random sample of 1,140 registered voters in the state, including 738 likely Republican primary voters.
The survey included an oversample to better assess views among likely GOP primary voters. Results have been weighted to reflect the actual share of all registered voters.
The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.9 percentage points for the full sample and 4.8 points for likely Republican primary voters.
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