Voting on Election Day Across America

Poll: Republicans Command Double-Digit Lead For Midterm Elections On The Generic Ballot

Republicans continue to maintain a significant lead over Democrats in generic polling about the 2022 midterm elections.

On Saturday, the right-leaning pollster Rasmussen Reports released its latest survey of the congressional races coming in November.

Rasmussen asked one simple, generic question: “If the elections for Congress were held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or for the Democratic candidate?”

According to Rasmussen, 50 percent said they would go with the GOP candidate, while 39 percent said they’d vote for the Democrat.

The GOP’s lead in this poll dipped by two points since last month, Rasmussen reported.

Still, the Republicans hold a 19-point lead among independents, whose ranks are growing and who are increasingly the most influential voting bloc. Rasmussen noted that among voters not affiliated with either major party, 46 percent say they would back the Republican, while only 27 percent would vote for the Democrat. The rest would choose another candidate or are undecided.

Rasmussen pointed out that at this point in the 2018 election cycle, a few months before Democrats recaptured control of the House for the first time in eight years, Democrats led 46-40 on the generic ballot question.

By the time of that election, Republicans actually pulled ahead, 46-45.

Yet, Rasmussen noted, “The 11-point edge for Republicans in the latest poll is larger than Democrats enjoyed at any time during the 2018 midterm campaign.”

But based on Rasmussen’s results, it seems that Democrats are suffering an enthusiasm gap among their own voters.

Overall, 94 percent of GOP voters say they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate this fall. That compares to just 82 percent of Democrats who would vote for the Democratic candidate.

Rasmussen appears to be somewhat of an outlier, according to the RealClearPolitics average of all major polls.

The Republicans’ next biggest lead among the RCP tally of pollsters is 8 points, taken two weeks ago. 

Still, RCP shows the GOP with a 3.7-point advantage.

But RCP also shows that Republicans seized the lead on that poll question in mid-November, and the GOP’s lead has remained steady at between 3 and 4 percentage points for the past two months.  

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