A top pollster suggests that while the outward evidence may not be clear, President Joe Biden’s vicious denouncement of the patriotism and loyalty of “MAGA Republicans” is fueling the arrival of the red wave in November.
In a Twitter thread on Saturday, Robert C. Cahaly, chief pollster of the Trafalgar Group, which was considered the most accurate polling firm in the 2016 election, wrote that snarling attacks by Biden, other Democrats, and liberal media pundits has created what he calls “submerged voters.”
“In 2016 [Donald] Trump supporters were called ‘Deplorables’ and other unflattering names. This was a major contributor to the ‘shy Trump voter’ phenomenon that ‘most’ polling missed which resulted in a major loss in public confidence for polling flowing the election,” Cahaly wrote.
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“In 2020 people who supported Trump or espoused conservative values out of step with ‘Woke’ culture found themselves being ‘canceled’ or ‘doxed.’ This led to ‘hidden voters’ that ‘most’ polling undercounted, therefore Trump support in key battleground states exceeded expectations.”
He continued, “Now that the Biden administration has essentially classified ‘MAGA Republicans’ as a threat to democracy marshaling federal law enforcement to focus on them. This move has created a new type of voter that will be even harder to poll or even estimate.”
“I call this new group ‘submerged voters.’”
Cahaly added, “They aren’t putting stickers on their cars, signs in their yards, posting their opinions, or even answering polls. At this point, I think it’s fair to say that Biden’s pursuit of and attacks on ‘MAGA Republicans’ has created an army of voters who will be virtually impossible to poll (even for us) and more difficult still to estimate.”
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But he added, “The 2022 Republican turnout will likely be higher than any of the polls or models are showing. All polls (including ours) will understate the impact of these ‘submerged voters.’”
It remains to be seen if Cahaly is correct. But as one Twitter user put it in response to his “submerged voters” theory: “We’re not shy. We’re pissed.”