In posts on his social media platform Truth Social, former President Donald Trump on Tuesday circulated recent media reports about polls that indicate a growing number of Americans would prefer to see Trump back in the White House than live with Biden for four more years.
Trump cast a spotlight on the polling data just days after Hillary Clinton, MSNBC leftist Joe Scarborough, and former Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill all compared him to Adolf Hitler.
In one post, Trump highlighted, without comment, a Washington Examiner report that showed him with 53% support from likely voters.
The Examiner reported on a poll, taken in October by the right-leaning Rasmussen Reports, that indicated even 30% of Democrats are “very” or “somewhat likely” to go with Trump.
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That poll also showed that 50% of independent voters and 50% of black voters agreed with that.
Trump also shared, again without comment, a report from Tuesday by Real Clear Politics that noted his growing popularity with voters — despite all the past baggage, the relentless media attacks, and the pending criminal and civil legal cases.
“So let us set the record straight: Trump can win. Not in a “maybe if all the stars align and then Russia changes the vote totals (even somehow in states like Michigan that use hand-marked paper ballots)” kind of way. Just flat out: Trump can win,” RCP argued.
The basis for that was RCP’s running analysis of current polling.
The outlet noted that Trump leads Biden by 2.6 percentage points nationally in RCP’s average of all polls it tracks.
“This is Trump’s largest lead in the RCP average to date. Not for 2024, mind you. Ever,” RCP added.
The website pointed out that in 2016, Trump led Hillary Clinton for just five days in its tracking, and that came right after the Republican convention.
In 2020, Trump never led Biden in RCP’s analysis. The closest he came was four points, and that was in early January 2020.
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Overall, in his last two elections, Trump held the lead in a total of 24 national polls.
For the 2024 election, he’s led in that many in the past two months. “He’s led in more polls in the past three weeks than he did against Biden in all of 2019-2020,” RCP reported.
RCP qualified its analysis by noting that polling at this moment may not hold up, and so it’s far too early to say for sure Trump can prevail.
But the outlet also cited his numbers in the key battleground states.
- Wisconsin: Trump never led in a single poll in 2016 and led in only four in 2020. Today, he has already led in almost as many polls as he did in 2016 and 2020 combined and trails Biden by only 0.7% .
- Michigan: Trump led in one poll in 2016 and in just five in 2020. Today, Trump leads in the RCP poll for the first time ever.
- Pennsylvania: Trump also led in only one poll in 2016 and in just five in 2020. Today, he leads the RCP survey for the first time ever, and has led in most polls.
- Florida: In 2016, his largest lead was 1.2 points, and four years later, he pulled ahead of Biden in RCP’s poll “briefly.” Today, Trump has led or tied in every poll, including posting some double-digit leads there.
- Arizona: In 2020, Trump led in just two polls and overall was about one point behind Biden at the end. Today, he leads the RCP poll by five points.
- Ohio: In 2020, Trump led in only six polls in the entire election cycle. Today, he’s up by 10 points.
- Georgia: He narrowly lost the state in 2020. Today, he leads by six points.
“In other words,” RCP reported, “analyzing this election correctly isn’t just a matter of giving lip service to the notion that Trump can win this election. The correct position right now is that Trump is better positioned in the polls to win this election than any GOP nominee since at least 2004. Not only that, he habitually over-performs his polls.”
“Frankly, if you are willing to set favorites this far out, you should almost certainly declare Donald Trump the favorite.”
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